{"id":4577,"date":"2026-08-11T11:48:19","date_gmt":"2026-08-11T09:48:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ellistat.com\/?post_type=guide-dutilisateur&#038;p=4577"},"modified":"2026-11-06T16:14:44","modified_gmt":"2026-11-06T15:14:44","slug":"el-principio-lo-que-dice-una-prueba-y-lo-que-no-dice","status":"publish","type":"guide-dutilisateur","link":"https:\/\/ellistat.com\/es\/guide-dutilisateur\/le-principe-ce-que-dit-un-test-et-ce-quil-ne-dit-pas\/","title":{"rendered":"Prueba de hip\u00f3tesis: lo que indica un valor p (y lo que no indica)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Toda prueba contrapone dos hip\u00f3tesis:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>H0<\/strong>, la hip\u00f3tesis nula: no hay diferencia. Es la hip\u00f3tesis por defecto, aquella que se pretende refutar.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>H1<\/strong>, la hip\u00f3tesis alternativa: hay una diferencia.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La prueba calcula la&nbsp;<strong>valor p<\/strong>&nbsp;: la probabilidad de observar una diferencia al menos tan grande como la tuya&nbsp;<strong>si H0 fuera cierta<\/strong>. Un valor p bajo hace que la hip\u00f3tesis del azar resulte poco cre\u00edble, por lo que se rechaza H0.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le&nbsp;<strong>riesgo alfa<\/strong>&nbsp;es el umbral que te fijas, tradicionalmente 5 %. Es el riesgo de anunciar una diferencia que no existe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ellistat <a href=\"https:\/\/ellistat.com\/es\/soluciones-de-analisis-de-datos\/\" data-type=\"page\" data-id=\"905\">An\u00e1lisis de datos<\/a> clasifica la conclusi\u00f3n en cuatro niveles, con un c\u00f3digo de colores:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><td><strong>valor p<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Conclusi\u00f3n<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>p \u2264 0,01<\/td><td>Muy significativo<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>0,01 &lt; p \u2264 0,05<\/td><td>Significativo<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>0,05 &lt; p \u2264 0,1<\/td><td>L\u00edmite significativo<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>p &gt; 0,1<\/td><td>No significativo<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-very-light-gray-background-color has-background wp-block-paragraph\">\u26a0\ufe0f&nbsp;<strong>\u00abNo significativo\u00bb no significa \u00abigual\u00bb.<\/strong>&nbsp;Esto significa que tus datos no son suficientes para sacar conclusiones. Con cinco mediciones por grupo, una diferencia real importante puede seguir sin ser significativa, ya que la prueba no tiene la potencia suficiente para detectarla. Para eso sirve precisamente la entrada&nbsp;<strong>Potencia<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-very-light-gray-background-color has-background wp-block-paragraph\">\ud83d\udca1 Del mismo modo, una diferencia m\u00ednima cobra importancia cuando se trata de muestras muy grandes.&nbsp;<strong>\u00abSignificativo\u00bb no significa \u00abimportante\u00bb.<\/strong>&nbsp;Hay que tener siempre en cuenta la magnitud de la diferencia, adem\u00e1s del valor p: la estad\u00edstica indica si la diferencia es real, el ingeniero determina si es relevante.<\/p>","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"menu_order":20,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false},"menu-guide-dutilisateur":[23],"class_list":["post-4577","guide-dutilisateur","type-guide-dutilisateur","status-publish","hentry","menu-guide-dutilisateur-5-statistiques-inferentielles"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Test d&#039;hypoth\u00e8se : ce que dit une p-value (et ce qu&#039;elle ne dit pas) - 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