{"id":4608,"date":"2026-08-12T14:47:41","date_gmt":"2026-08-12T12:47:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ellistat.com\/?post_type=guide-dutilisateur&#038;p=4608"},"modified":"2026-11-09T14:51:21","modified_gmt":"2026-11-09T13:51:21","slug":"megbizhatosagi-becsles","status":"publish","type":"guide-dutilisateur","link":"https:\/\/ellistat.com\/hu\/guide-dutilisateur\/estimation-de-fiabilite\/","title":{"rendered":"A megb\u00edzhat\u00f3s\u00e1g becsl\u00e9se az \u00e9lettartam-adatok alapj\u00e1n"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ez a f\u0151be\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00e1s: az adatok \u00e9lettartam\u00e1ra vonatkoz\u00f3 szab\u00e1lyt \u00e1ll\u00edtja be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A bevitel form\u00e1tum\u00e1nak kiv\u00e1laszt\u00e1sa<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00d6t form\u00e1tum, att\u00f3l f\u00fcgg\u0151en, hogy az adatok val\u00f3j\u00e1ban milyen form\u00e1ban \u00e1llnak rendelkez\u00e9sre. Ez az els\u0151 d\u00f6nt\u00e9s, amit meg kell hoznia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><td><strong>Form\u00e1tum<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>A t\u00e1bl\u00e1zat fel\u00e9p\u00edt\u00e9se<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Alkalmaz\u00e1si esetek<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><strong>Id\u0151szakok \u00e9s cenz\u00far\u00e1k<\/strong><\/td><td>Id\u0151szak kezdete, id\u0151szak v\u00e9ge, meghib\u00e1sod\u00e1sok sz\u00e1ma, cenz\u00far\u00e1k sz\u00e1ma<\/td><td>Intervallumok szerint m\u00e1r \u00f6sszes\u00edtett adatok<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>\u00c9rt\u00e9kek \u00e9s cenz\u00fara<\/strong><\/td><td>Zavartalan m\u0171k\u00f6d\u00e9si id\u0151, le\u00e1ll\u00e1sok, sz\u00e1mok<\/td><td>Laborat\u00f3riumi vizsg\u00e1latok<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>\u00c9rt\u00e9kes\u00edt\u00e9si \u00e9s visszav\u00e9teli hat\u00e1rid\u0151k<\/strong><\/td><td>Elad\u00e1si d\u00e1tum, visszav\u00e9teli d\u00e1tum, sz\u00e1mok, cenz\u00far\u00e1z\u00e1sok<\/td><td>Egyedi nyomonk\u00f6vethet\u0151s\u00e9g<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>\u00c9rt\u00e9kes\u00edt\u00e9s d\u00e1tuma \u00e9s le\u00e1ll\u00e1si id\u0151<\/strong><\/td><td>\u00c9rt\u00e9kes\u00edt\u00e9s d\u00e1tuma, zavartalan m\u0171k\u00f6d\u00e9si id\u0151, sz\u00e1mok, cenz\u00far\u00e1z\u00e1sok<\/td><td>Az el\u0151z\u0151 v\u00e1ltozat egy olyan v\u00e1ltozata, amely aut\u00f3z\u00e1s eset\u00e9n hasznos, ahol a t\u00e1vols\u00e1got kilom\u00e9terben, nem pedig id\u0151ben m\u00e9rj\u00fck<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-color-24-background-color has-background wp-block-paragraph\">\ud83d\udca1 Ne alak\u00edtsd \u00e1t az adataidat egy adott form\u00e1tumhoz: v\u00e1laszd azt a form\u00e1tumot, amelyik illeszkedik a rendelkez\u00e9sedre \u00e1ll\u00f3 adatokhoz. Minden k\u00e9zi \u00e1talak\u00edt\u00e1s lehet\u0151s\u00e9get k\u00edn\u00e1l az adatok elveszt\u00e9s\u00e9re.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"150\" height=\"372\" src=\"https:\/\/ellistat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/fiabilite3.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4609\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ellistat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/fiabilite3.png 150w, https:\/\/ellistat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/fiabilite3-121x300.png 121w, https:\/\/ellistat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/fiabilite3-5x12.png 5w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"964\" height=\"466\" src=\"https:\/\/ellistat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/fiabilite4.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4610\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ellistat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/fiabilite4.png 964w, https:\/\/ellistat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/fiabilite4-300x145.png 300w, https:\/\/ellistat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/fiabilite4-768x371.png 768w, https:\/\/ellistat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/fiabilite4-18x9.png 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 964px) 100vw, 964px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Az elemz\u00e9s be\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00e1sa<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Az elemz\u00e9s t\u00edpusa<\/strong>&nbsp;: 2- vagy 3-param\u00e9teres Weibull-modell, Kaplan\u2013Meier-m\u00f3dszer; ;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Sz\u00e1m\u00edt\u00e1si m\u00f3dszer<\/strong>&nbsp;:&nbsp;<strong>legnagyobb val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171s\u00e9g<\/strong>&nbsp;vagy&nbsp;<strong>regresszi\u00f3<\/strong>&nbsp;;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Bizalmi szint<\/strong>&nbsp;az intervallum; ;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>A grafikonok legnagyobb abszcissza\u00e9rt\u00e9ke<\/strong>, a k\u00e9perny\u0151 be\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00e1s\u00e1hoz.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-color-24-background-color has-background wp-block-paragraph\">\ud83d\udca1\u00a0<strong>Val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171s\u00e9g vagy visszafejl\u0151d\u00e9s?<\/strong>\u00a0 A maxim\u00e1lis val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171s\u00e9g statisztikailag hat\u00e9konyabb, \u00e9s jobban kezeli a cenz\u00far\u00e1kat; ez az alap\u00e9rtelmezett v\u00e1laszt\u00e1s. A regresszi\u00f3, amely egy egyenest illeszt a Weibull-diagramra, vizu\u00e1lisabb, \u00e9s megk\u00f6nny\u00edti a magyar\u00e1zatot harmadik felek sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra. Saj\u00e1t adatokon a k\u00e9t m\u00f3dszer eredm\u00e9nyei konverg\u00e1lnak; ha jelent\u0151sen elt\u00e9rnek egym\u00e1st\u00f3l, az azt jelzi, hogy az eloszl\u00e1s nem megfelel\u0151.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Kaplan\u2013Meier<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Kaplan\u2013Meier-m\u00f3dszer nem v\u00e9gez korrekci\u00f3t&nbsp;<strong>nincs t\u00f6rv\u00e9ny<\/strong>&nbsp;: l\u00e9p\u00e9sr\u0151l l\u00e9p\u00e9sre fel\u00e9p\u00edti a megfigyelt t\u00fal\u00e9l\u00e9si g\u00f6rb\u00e9t, figyelembe v\u00e9ve a cenz\u00far\u00e1kat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"964\" height=\"584\" src=\"https:\/\/ellistat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/fiabilite5.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4611\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ellistat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/fiabilite5.png 964w, https:\/\/ellistat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/fiabilite5-300x182.png 300w, https:\/\/ellistat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/fiabilite5-768x465.png 768w, https:\/\/ellistat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/fiabilite5-18x12.png 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 964px) 100vw, 964px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Haszn\u00e1lata&nbsp;<strong>Weibull<\/strong>&nbsp;amikor extrapol\u00e1lni szeretn\u00e9nk, 5 \u00e9vre el\u0151re j\u00f3solni 1 \u00e9vnyi visszatekint\u00e9ssel, vagy \u00e9rtelmezhet\u0151 \u03b2-\u00e9rt\u00e9ket kapni.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Haszn\u00e1lata&nbsp;<strong>Kaplan\u2013Meier<\/strong>&nbsp;amikor felt\u00e9telez\u00e9sek n\u00e9lk\u00fcl szeretn\u00e9nk le\u00edrni, vagy amikor a g\u00f6rbe alakja nyilv\u00e1nval\u00f3an szab\u00e1lytalan.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La\u00a0<strong>Kaplan\u2013Meier-t\u00fal\u00e9l\u00e9si \u00f6sszehasonl\u00edt\u00e1s<\/strong>\u00a0k\u00e9t csoportot \u00e1ll\u00edt szembe egym\u00e1ssal: k\u00e9t gy\u00e1rt\u00f3t, k\u00e9t v\u00e1ltozatot, k\u00e9t haszn\u00e1lati felt\u00e9telt. Ez a megfelel\u0151 eszk\u00f6z arra a k\u00e9rd\u00e9sre, hogy \u00abaz \u00faj modell tart\u00f3sabb-e, mint a r\u00e9gi?\u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Az eredm\u00e9nyek megtekint\u00e9se<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"644\" height=\"340\" src=\"https:\/\/ellistat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/fiabiliteresultats.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4920\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ellistat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/fiabiliteresultats.png 644w, https:\/\/ellistat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/fiabiliteresultats-300x158.png 300w, https:\/\/ellistat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/fiabiliteresultats-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 644px) 100vw, 644px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le&nbsp;<strong>Weibull-pap\u00edr<\/strong>&nbsp;\u00f6sszehangolja a pontokat, ha az eloszl\u00e1s megfelel\u0151. Egy egy\u00e9rtelm\u0171 g\u00f6rb\u00fclet arra \u00f6szt\u00f6n\u00f6z, hogy pr\u00f3b\u00e1ljuk ki a 3-param\u00e9teres Weibull-eloszl\u00e1st, vagy k\u00e9t meghib\u00e1sod\u00e1si m\u00f3d kevered\u00e9s\u00e9re utal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le&nbsp;<strong>a kock\u00e1zatok \u00e1br\u00e1zol\u00e1sa<\/strong>&nbsp;bemutatja a nemteljes\u00edt\u00e9si ar\u00e1ny id\u0151beli alakul\u00e1s\u00e1t; a \u03b2-vel le\u00edrt viselked\u00e9s k\u00f6zvetlen leolvas\u00e1sa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-color-24-background-color has-background wp-block-paragraph\">\u26a0\ufe0f Ha k\u00e9t k\u00fcl\u00f6nb\u00f6z\u0151 meghib\u00e1sod\u00e1si m\u00f3d keveredik egyazon adathalmazban, az eredm\u00e9ny egy gyenge illeszked\u00e9s \u00e9s egy olyan k\u00f6zbens\u0151 \u03b2-\u00e9rt\u00e9k lesz, amely egyik modellt sem \u00edrja le megfelel\u0151en. Ha ismeri a meghib\u00e1sod\u00e1si m\u00f3dokat,&nbsp;<strong>az adatokat v\u00e1lasszuk sz\u00e9t a kiigaz\u00edt\u00e1s el\u0151tt<\/strong>. Egy 1,2-es \u03b2-\u00e9rt\u00e9k m\u00f6g\u00f6tt rejt\u0151zhet egy 0,6-os \u03b2-\u00e9rt\u00e9k a csecsem\u0151haland\u00f3s\u00e1gra vonatkoz\u00f3an, valamint egy 3-as \u03b2-\u00e9rt\u00e9k a kop\u00e1sra vonatkoz\u00f3an.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"644\" height=\"336\" src=\"https:\/\/ellistat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/defaillance.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4921\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ellistat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/defaillance.png 644w, https:\/\/ellistat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/defaillance-300x157.png 300w, https:\/\/ellistat.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/defaillance-18x9.png 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 644px) 100vw, 644px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ellistat.com\/hu\/adatelemzesi-megoldasok\/\" data-type=\"page\" data-id=\"905\">Ellistat<\/a> automatikusan felismeri ezt az esetet, \u00e9s javasolja egy k\u00e9tm\u00f3dos modell illeszt\u00e9s\u00e9t, an\u00e9lk\u00fcl, hogy az adatokat el\u0151zetesen sz\u00e9t kellene v\u00e1lasztani. K\u00e9tf\u00e9le modellez\u00e9si m\u00f3dszer \u00e1ll rendelkez\u00e9sre, amelyek k\u00f6z\u00fcl a term\u00e9k fizikai tulajdons\u00e1gai alapj\u00e1n lehet v\u00e1lasztani:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u00a0<strong>Kever\u00e9k<\/strong> : a popul\u00e1ci\u00f3 k\u00e9t k\u00fcl\u00f6n\u00e1ll\u00f3 alpopul\u00e1ci\u00f3b\u00f3l \u00e1ll, amelyek mindegyike a saj\u00e1t Weibull-eloszl\u00e1s\u00e1t k\u00f6veti. A term\u00e9kek p h\u00e1nyada az els\u0151 m\u00f3dhoz tartozik, a t\u00f6bbi pedig a m\u00e1sodikhoz. Ez a helyzet p\u00e9ld\u00e1ul egy olyan t\u00e9tel eset\u00e9ben, amelyet r\u00e9szben \u00e9rint egy gy\u00e1rt\u00e1si hiba: a hib\u00e1tlan term\u00e9kek soha nem fognak ebben a m\u00f3dban meghib\u00e1sodni.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>K\u00f6z\u00f6s hat\u00e1s: minden term\u00e9k egyszerre van kit\u00e9ve mindk\u00e9t mechanizmusnak, \u00e9s az els\u0151k\u00e9nt bek\u00f6vetkez\u0151 meghib\u00e1sod\u00e1s miatt meghib\u00e1sodik (p\u00e1rhuzamos kock\u00e1zatok). Ez a helyzet p\u00e9ld\u00e1ul egy olyan term\u00e9k eset\u00e9ben, amely egyszerre ki van t\u00e9ve a fokozatos kop\u00e1snak \u00e9s a v\u00e9letlenszer\u0171 meghib\u00e1sod\u00e1snak.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-color-24-background-color has-background wp-block-paragraph\">\ud83d\udca1 A v\u00e1laszt\u00e1s a term\u00e9kr\u0151l rendelkez\u00e9sre \u00e1ll\u00f3 ismeretek alapj\u00e1n t\u00f6rt\u00e9nik, nem pedig az illeszked\u00e9s min\u0151s\u00e9ge alapj\u00e1n: a k\u00e9t modell gyakran hasonl\u00f3 g\u00f6rb\u00e9ket ad a megfigyelt adatokra, de az extrapol\u00e1ci\u00f3k nagyon elt\u00e9r\u0151ek. Kever\u00e9s eset\u00e9n az eg\u00e9szs\u00e9ges alpopul\u00e1ci\u00f3 n\u00f6veli a hossz\u00fa t\u00e1v\u00fa megb\u00edzhat\u00f3s\u00e1got; egym\u00e1sra helyez\u00e9s eset\u00e9n a k\u00e9t kock\u00e1zat tov\u00e1bbra is \u00f6sszead\u00f3dik. Ha a m\u00f3dok ismertek \u00e9s az adatokb\u00f3l azonos\u00edthat\u00f3k, akkor a leg\u00e9rthet\u0151bb megold\u00e1s tov\u00e1bbra is az adatsorok sz\u00e9tv\u00e1laszt\u00e1sa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az Ellistat jelzi azokat az eseteket, amikor az elemz\u00e9s nem lehets\u00e9ges: *\u00abA Weibull-elemz\u00e9shez nincs rendelkez\u00e9sre \u00e1ll\u00f3 meghib\u00e1sod\u00e1s az adott kiv\u00e1laszt\u00e1s alapj\u00e1n\u00bb* \u2013 ha nem figyeltek meg meghib\u00e1sod\u00e1st, akkor semmilyen eloszl\u00e1s nem illeszthet\u0151.<\/p>","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"menu_order":50,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false},"menu-guide-dutilisateur":[36],"class_list":["post-4608","guide-dutilisateur","type-guide-dutilisateur","status-publish","hentry","menu-guide-dutilisateur-10-fiabilite"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Estimer une fiabilit\u00e9 (Weibull) - 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